Carolina Panthers Den: Carolina Panthers Den -> NFC South Preview:

Here goes... the first entry.

Since it is the pre-preseason (my term for the not-so-off-season) I'll start by doing what every red-blooded NFL fan does this time of year: preview the upcoming season with my team-by-team predictions. I'll endeavor to do this as professionally as possible, but if some of my politically incorrect opinions slip through, I apologize in advance.

First off, lets get one thing straight: like most of you here, i'm a Panthers fan. As such, I probably won't be able to resist a bit of homerism here, but when you're talking about a team that's already been picked by numerous national publications, and by dozens of "experts" to win the Super Bowl, homerism becomes less of an issue...

Anyway, as a Panther fan, the logical place to start my preview is in the good ole' NFC South. As usual, I'll start at the top:

CAROLINA PANTHERS:
2005 Record: 11-5, Wild Card
2005 Postseason: 2-1, Lost NFC Championship
2006 Draft Grade: B+
2006 Prediction: 1st, NFC South

After fighting their way to the NFC title game, the Panthers were hammered by the Seahawks due to injuries to their running backs, an inability to stop the run, and a gross imbalance at wide receiver. These problems were addressed in the offseason, which is bad news for the rest of the NFC. After coming so close over the last 3 years, the Panthers have put themselves in a position where anything less than an NFC title would be a major disappointment. With their offseason moves, they have put themselves in a position where they may very well be the class of the NFC, but the Seahawks, Redskins, Falcons, and Giants, among others will surely have something to say about that.

Free Agency:
The Panthers were active in free agency, filling holes, and adding quality depth. To fix the imbalance at wide receiver, the Panthers made an uncharacteristic move and signed the controversial Keyshawn Johnson to serve as Steve Smith's #2 (even if he'll never admit it). They also added massive 350+ lb defensive tackle Ma'ake Kemoeatu from Baltimore to shore up the already solid run defense, and former Titan center Justin Hartwig to upgrade the offensive line. Other additions who could make an impact include safety Shaun Williams, defensive tackle Damione Lewis, and corner Reggie Howard, who returns to the team after 2 years in Miami.
Grade: A+

2006 Draft:
The Panthers got one of the steals of the draft in Memphis running back DeAngelo Williams, who was considered by many to be a top-10 or 15 talent before team needs caused him to fall all the way to 27, where the Panthers wasted no time in selecting him. The value picks continued in round 2 when the Panthers saw Fresno State cornerback Richard Marshall (considered by many a late 1st-round talent) fall to them in the late 2nd round. The Panthers used the extra 3rd round pick acquired from Chicago in the Ricky Manning deal to select Virginia Tech linebacker James Anderson, and then spent their original 3rd rounder on Miami tackle Rashad Butler - both were slight reaches in the 3rd, but likely wouldn't have lasted until round 4. Ohio State safety Nate Salley was considered a 4th round reach by many, but was always one of the more underrated defenders in this draft, in my opinion. Tight end Jeff King is no Antonio Gates, but fits the Panthers mold for the position as a solid blocker, and decent receiver. Offensive lineman Will Montgomery was the 3rd Virginia Tech player selected by the Panthers, and a good value in the 7th round. Auburn defensive end Stanley McClover was projected as high as the 3rd round in many mocks, and was a great value as the team's final pick.
Grade: B+

Quarterbacks:
Jake Delhomme made his first Pro Bowl in 2005, but needs to improve on his TD-INT ratio (24-16). The addition of Keyshawn should help do just that, but Delhomme is a gunslinger and will always throw more picks than the average Pro Bowler - it's just his nature. Chris Weinke was re-signed and should serve as the primary backup to Delhomme unless 2nd year man Stefan LeFors can pull an upset and leap-frog Weinke on the depth chart.
Rating: 8/10

Running Backs:
DeShaun Foster was re-signed to a 3-year deal in the offseason, and will be the featured back unless his injury problems resurface early. Don't let the 3-year contract fool you, though - it could easily be converted into a 1-year deal if Foster continues to struggle with injuries, and DeAngelo Williams has a strong rookie year. Nick Goings returns, and backs up at both halfback and fullback. The Panthers 2nd round pick in 2005, Eric Shelton was unspectacular in last years preseason, and was placed on I.R. with what amounted to a one-month injury. He spent his rookie year in the weight room, and working one-on-one with coaches. The Panthers hope he can become the team's short-yardage specialist. Fullback Brad Hoover returns as little more than a lead blocker.
Rating: 8/10

Receivers:
Steve Smith burst onto the scene in 2005, leading the league in catches, yards, and touchdown receptions. Beyond Smith however, the Panthers had issues. Keary Colbert struggled in his 2nd year, with consistency and an ankle injury, and the team's second leading receiver was DeShaun Foster. The Panthers signed Keyshawn Johnson to be the new Muhsin Muhammad opposite Smith - a move that could pay huge dividends in 2006. Colbert will likely serve as the slot receiver, but could see a fair amount of competition from the speedy Drew Carter. Karl Hankton returns as the special teams captain, while 2005 practice squader Efrem Hill could make the team as a kick/punt returner. The tight end position will likely be played by committee - Kris Mangum will likely get the starting job, but rookie Jeff King and the units only real receiving threat at tight end, Michael Gaines, could both see significant playing time.
Rating: 9/10

Offensive Line:
This could be the most underrated o-line in the entire NFL. Mike Wahle returns as the units only Pro Bowler, but right tackle Jordan Gross, and newly acquired center Justin Hartwig could both find themselves playing past the Super Bowl this season if the team does well. Left tackle Travelle Wharton is still learning - he can struggle against the fast edge-rushers, but also held Simeon Rice to zero tackles in one game in 2005. Evan Mathis, a 2005 3rd round pick, appears to have the right guard position well in hand, and has all the physical tools to be a solid starter in the NFL. Depth could be a concern here, but rookies Rashad Butler and Will Montgomery could help out there.
Rating: 8/10

Defensive Line:
The unquestionable strength of the team. If Kris Jenkins returns healthy, and to form, then this unit will without a doubt be the best in the entire league. If he doesn't, there is enough depth to ensure it will remain among the better d-lines in football. Julius Peppers' 10.5 sacks in 2005 was enough to earn him a second consecutive Pro Bowl appearance, but its his development as a run defender that makes him quite possibly the best defensive end in the game. Mike Rucker returns as a solid pass-rusher, as well as a gritty run stuffer and team leader, and newly acquired defensive tackle Ma'ake Kemoeatu gives this unit the young run-stuffer John Fox has been after since he came to Carolina. If all four starters stay healthy, and play to their potential, it will be a monster for opposing offenses to deal with. The depth is as good here as well, with Jordan Carstens, Kindal Moorehead, and Damione Lewis all capable of starting.
Rating: 10/10

Linebackers:
The biggest question mark on the team lies here. Middle linebacker Dan Morgan returns as the only starter from 2005, and has struggled with injuries throughout his career. He can be expected to miss 2-3 games a year with various nagging injuries. If and when that happens, former Falcon starter Chris Draft is a capable backup, who could start on many teams. The real questions are at outside linebacker, where both starters from last year are gone (Will Witherspoon to the Rams, Brandon Short to the Giants). Last years 14th overall pick, Thomas Davis will make the move from safety to linebacker full-time in 2006, and has all the physical tools to excell at his new position, but is far from a sure thing given his situation. Opposite Davis, expect either Keith Adams or Na'il Diggs to get the nod as the starter, but 2nd year player Adam Seward (a 2005 5th rounder) and rookie James Anderson could factor into the mix as well.
Rating: 7/10

Secondary:
The Panthers boast one of the top cornerback duos in the league in Ken Lucas and Chris Gamble. The two combined for 13 picks in 2005, and with the improvements up front, that number could increase in 2006. Lucas was overlooked when Pro Bowl voting came around, and was one of the best defensive players on the team in 2005. Gamble picked off a team high seven passes last year, and is still learning - which for a guy with his ability is downright scary. Ricky Manning bolted for the Bears in April, so the Panthers answered by bringing back Reggie Howard, who started on their 2003 Super Bowl team, and spent a 2nd round draft pick on Fresno State's Richard Marshall. At safety, Mike Minter is a solid veteran who can play either safety spot. Opposite Minter, expect Colin Branch or free agent addition Shaun Williams to get the starting job.
Rating: 9/10

Special Teams:
John Kasay returns as the last remaining original Panther, but doesn't have the same pop in his leg that he used to, and isn't the long-range threat he once was. Punter Jason Baker nearly made the Pro Bowl in 2005, and was re-signed through 2007. The major question here is with the return game - Steve Smith will no longer be returning punts for obvious reasons, and Rod Smart was released. There are indications that DeAngelo Williams will be given the chance to return kicks, and 2nd rounder Richard Marshall has some experience returning kicks as well. The frontrunner for the kick returner job appears to be Efrem Hill, who spent 2005 on the practice squad. Undrafted rookie Jovon Bouknight, and 2005 return man, Jamal Robertson could also factor into the return game.
Rating: 7/10

Overall Grade: A-


ATLANTA FALCONS:
2005 Record: 8-8
2005 Postseason: N/A
2006 Draft Grade: B-
2006 Prediction: 2nd, NFC South

The Falcons had an inconsistent year in 2005, but the pieces are in place for a deep playoff run. The biggest obstacle standing in their way is a hyper-competitive NFC South, which could send as many as three teams to the playoffs. Injuries also took their toll in 2005, and with those players back, along with some solid offseason additions, the Falcons should be able to play their way to at least a wild card berth.

Free Agency:
The Falcons broke even in free agency, losing offensive tackle Kevin Shaffer to the Cleveland Browns, while signing veteran safety Lawyer Milloy. The biggest moves made by Atlanta were in the trade department. They acquired defensive end John Abraham from the Jets in a three-way trade, including Denver. The move cost them their 1st round draft choice, but they added a quality pass-rusher - something the defense was in need of. They acquired safety Chris Crocker from Cleveland, which should net them a starter opposite Milloy, and they traded Bryan Scott to division rival New Orleans in exchange for offensive tackle Wayne Gandy.
Grade: B+

2006 Draft:
When grading a teams draft you have to take traded picks into account. The Falcons acquired John Abraham & Chris Crocker, which were both solid moves. Lacking a 1st round pick, the Falcons still snagged a 1st round talent in Virginia Tech corner Jimmy Williams. Williams' drop was due largely to character issues, but you can't deny his athletic ability. He should be an excellent nickelback right away, and could eventually team alongside fellow Hokie DeAngelo Hall to form a solid duo at corner. Running back Jerious Norwood is a solid 3rd round pick, and tackle Quinn Ojinnaka could eventually develop into a starter. Fresno State receiver Adam Jennings is a slight reach in the 6th, and could have been an undrafted signee, or a 7th rounder, but Georgia QB D.J. Shockley is a nice value in the 7th.
Grade: B-

Quarterbacks:
Michael Vick is an amazing playmaker, but still struggles as a passer, and that must improve if he is to continue to try his hand at being a throw-first QB. Vick would be better suited to just play his game - get out of the pocket if it's what works, and in Vick's case, it usually does. The truth is, the Falcons might just be better off letting current backup Matt Schaub take the reins as the starter, and trade the inconsistent Vick. Getting back to reality though - it won't happen. Schaub will get his shot, though - somewhere, and will more than likely excell when he does. Rookie D.J. Shockley should get the nod as the 3rd QB.
Rating: 8/10

Running Backs:
Warrick Dunn returns, and if healthy should be good for at least 1,200 yards. If not, then T.J. Duckett is a capable backup. Either way, rookie Jerious Norwood will get his chances as well, and it should be interesting to see how he develops, as Dunn isn't getting any younger, and Duckett's contract is up soon. Fullback Justin Griffith has developed into one of the NFL's best.
Rating: 9/10

Receivers:
A problem area for the last several seasons, tight end Alge Crumpler is the only sure thing. Roddy White performed well as a rookie, but didn't blow anyone away with his performance. He will team with fellow former 1st rounder Michael Jenkins, but Crumpler remains the only true go-to guy. Brian Finneran returns as the team's #3 receiver, where he performed well in 2005.
Rating: 6/10

Offensive Line:
The Falcons' offensive line returns four of five starters from 2005. The lone newcomer, left tackle Wayne Gandy should fit in nicely on this solid, yet unspectacular unit. Guard's Matt Lehr and Kynan Forney, center Todd McClure, and right tackle Todd Weiner form a solid run-blocking unit, but pass protection can't be easy with the mobile Vick to protect.
Rating: 8/10

Defensive Line:
Newly acquired defensive end John Abraham should add at least 10 sacks to the Falcons defense, and along with Patrick Kearney, form one of the best defensive end combos in the league. Defensive tackle Rod Coleman is a great pass-rusher at the tackle position, but an upgrade over Chad Lavalais wouldn't hurt.
Rating: 9/10

Linebackers:
With the return of Ed Hartwell from injury, the Falcons are instantly better here than they were. Keith Brooking returns as one of the team's defensive leaders, but the other outside linebacker spot is in question with Ike Reese, Michael Boley, and DeMorrio Williams there to compete for the starting job.
Rating: 7/10

Secondary:
The Falcons acquired two new starting-quality safeties in the offseason in Lawyer Milloy and Chris Crocker, and selected corner Jimmy Williams in the 2nd round to serve as the current nickelback, and future starter opposite Pro Bowler DeAngelo Hall. For now, Jason Webster will likely get the nod as the starter.
Rating: 8/10

Special Teams:
Allan Rossum remains one of the most dangerous return men in the game, and Michael Koenen is a solid young punter, but the Falcons have serious questions at kicker. It would have benefited them to go after one of the big-name kickers in free agency. Don't be surprised if they bring in a veteran free agent such as Paul Edinger before training camp.
Rating: 6/10

Overall Grade: B+

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
2005 Record: 11-5, Division Champions
2005 Postseason: 0-1
2006 Draft Grade: A-
2006 Prediction: 3rd, NFC South

The Bucs made a surprising return to respectability in 2005, winning the tough NFC South in a tiebreaker over the Panthers. Offensive rookie of the year, Cadillac Williams burst out of the gates, and appears to be an excellent pick, and the team's future at running back. Young QB Chris Simms also developed into a starter, and the team hopes, a future star. In 2006, the Bucs look to repeat as division champs, but it won't be easy with the Panthers and Falcons to contend with. I have the Bucs going 3rd in the division, but they could very well swap places with Atlanta. Either way, 3rd place in the NFC South may not mean a sub-.500 season. It wouldn't be a big shocker for the Bucs to come up 3rd in the division, and still make the playoffs as a wild card.

Free Agency:
The Bucs added quality depth in free agency, but didn't have the cap space to make any big moves. Guard Toniu Fonoti and tackle Torrin Tucker provide great depth, and two potential starters. Jerald Sowell is a nice addition, but one has to wonder if fullback is really a need for the Bucs. Linebacker Jamie Winborn is another depth guy with starting potential in a pinch. Wide receiver David Boston has struggled with off-field issues, but is a solid addition come game day.
Grade: B-

2006 Draft:
Hands down,the Bucs had the strongest draft in the division. They ended up with ten very solid players, who will provide great depth right away, and should yield at least two or three starters down the road. 1st rounder Davin Joseph should step into a starting role right away, and 2nd round tackle Jeremy Trueblood could join him in the starting lineup eventually. Notre Dame wide receiver Maurice Stovall should, if nothing else, be an excellent slot receiver. Penn State corner Alan Zemaitis is a steal in the 4th round, and could be a future starter. Defensive end Julian Jenkins provides nice depth, and QB Bruce Gradkowski could push for the backup job behind Chris Simms. N.C. State tight end T.J. Williams was underrated coming into the draft.
Grade: A-

Quarterbacks:
Chris Simms developed into a starting NFL QB in 2005, but his development is far from over. Simms has a solid group of receivers to work with, and a great young running back in Cadillac Williams to help keep the pressure off, but the ultimate burden will be on Simms to continue to develop. Veteran Tim Rattay likely has the #2 job locked up, but could see some competition from rookie Bruce Gradkowski. Last year's 3rd QB, Luke McCown had offseason surgery, and will likely be out for most of the season.
Rating: 7/10

Running Backs:
If the monster rookie season enjoyed by Cadillac Williams is any indication, then the Bucs have a stud on their hands. Williams should be good for at least 1,000 yards if healthy, and possibly quite a bit more if he can avoid injuries like the one that limited him for a few games last year. Backing up Williams, Michael Pittman is a solid second option, and fullback Mike Alstott is always good in short-yardage situations.
Rating: 9/10

Receivers:
Veteran Joey Galloway had a huge year in 2005, with 10 touchdown receptions, and was the unquestioned go-to receiver. Michael Clayton didn't look like the same guy who torched defenses as a rookie, but sophmore slumps aren't an uncommon thing, and Clayton clearly has the ability to be a solid #2 option behind Galloway. Veterans Ike Hilliard and David Boston will compete for the slot receiver job, but rookie Maurice Stovall could be the guy to watch as the long-term answer there. At tight end, Anthony Becht could see 2nd year man Alex Smith make a push for the starting job.
Rating: 8/10

Offensive Line:
The Bucs upgraded their offensive line this offseason by adding youth, and depth to a group that was solid,yet unspectacular in 2005. They signed Toniu Fotoni and Torrin Tucker in free agency, and then spent their first two draft choices on Oklahoma guard Davin Joseph, and Boston College tackle Jeremy Trueblood. The real challenge here will be finding the best five guys to put on the field. Right tackle Kenyata Walker could see some serious competition from the rookie Trueblood, and Joseph should start from day-one, which will likely mean Sean Mahan will move to center, where he should be able to win a starting job. Anthony Davis and Dan Buenning will likely return to round out the starting lineup.
Rating: 8/10

Defensive Line:
The Bucs re-signed nose tackle Chris Hovan, and along with Anthony McFarland forms a nasty combo. Simeon Rice had 14 sacks in 2005, but an upgrade over Greg Spires wouldn't hurt.
Rating: 8/10

Linebackers:
Derrick Brooks returns as the team's best defensive player, but his career is winding down, so the Bucs should start thinking about a long-term replacement. Opposite Brooks, Ryan Nece will get some legitimate competition from free agent addition Jamie Winborn, while Shelton Quarles will get some competition of his own from 2005 2nd rounder Barrett Ruud.
Rating: 8/10

Secondary:
Pro Bowler Ronde Barber's contract is up after 2006, so he'll be playing for a new deal, which he will get... somewhere. Neither Barber, nor Brian Kelly however, are getting any younger, which will give rookie Alan Zamaitis the chance to eventually earn a starting job. For now though, he should be a solid nickelback. Dexter Jackson left for the Bengals, which leaves Jermaine Phillips and Will Allen as the likely starters at safety.
Rating: 7/10

Special Teams:
The Bucs have still never returned a kickoff for a touchdown in the team's entire history, and that doesn't seem likely to change with the options (or lack thereof) they have right now. Kicker Matt Bryant was solid in 2005, and punter Matt Bryant made the Pro Bowl.
Rating: 7/10

Overall Grade: B+

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:
2005 Record: 3-13
2005 Postseason: N/A
2006 Draft Grade: B-
2006 Prediction: 4th, NFC South

In the aftermath of hurricane Katrina, the Saints got off to a strong start with a win over the Panthers on opening day, but the victory was far from a sign of things to come. The Saints struggled all year, on and off the field, and look to be a much different team in 2006. Whether that's different in a good or bad way... well, that remains to be seen.

Free Agency:
The biggest addition, QB Drew Brees is the big story here. Can Brees rebound from a rather severe shoulder injury sustained at the end of last season? If so, will he be the same player in New Orleans without Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates? Scott Fujita provides a starting-quality linebacker, and former Vikings running back Michael Bennett joins a crowded backfield. Tight end Mark Campbell is a solid addition, but is no Gates, which may be exactly what Drew Brees needs to succeed in the big easy. Anthony Simmons should earn a spot in the starting lineup as well. The Saints were active in trades as well, acquiring center Jeff Faine from Cleveland, safety Bryan Scott from Atlanta, and wide receiver Bethel Johnson from New England.
Grade: B+

2006 Draft:
The story here is obviously Reggie Bush. The Texans passed on the consensus #1 pick, allowing the Saints to steal the former USC star with the 2nd overall pick. The question however, is how Bush can co-exist with Deuce McAllister. Did the Saints set themselves up for a potentially nasty competition in the future? The Saints would have been better suited taking Fresno State corner Richard Marshall in the 2nd round, rather than Alabama safety Roman Harper, as corner was a bigger need for the team. The rest of the Saints draft is filled with slight reaches, and a few solid players, with one exception - 5th round wide receiver Mike Hass, who I always believed was extremely underrated heading into draft day. Hass could end up being the real steal of this draft for the Saints.
Grade: B-

Quarterbacks:
If he plays like he has the last two seasons in San Diego, Drew Brees is a great addition, and should be the starter for years to come. The question is: can he? Behind Brees, the Saints signed former Rams backup QB Jamie Martin, and 2005 5th rounder Adrian McPherson returns for his second season.
Rating: 8/10

Running Backs:
Deuce McAllister returns from injury as the starter, but with Reggie Bush coming in, how long can he keep that job? As I said earlier, the Saints may have set themselves up for a fair bit of controversy by drafting Bush when they already have a Pro Bowler in McAllister. It'll be up to new head coach Sean Payton to find a way to get both guys enough touches to keep them both happy. If he can do that, then the Saints have one heck of a two-headed monster at running back. Free agent addition Michael Bennet, Aaron Stecker, and fullback Mike Karney round out an excellent group of backs.
Rating: 10/10

Receivers:
Joe Horn returns as a solid target at wide receiver, and Donte Stallworth is a solid #2, but recently acquired Bethel Johnson could push for more playing time. Rookie Mike Hass isn't a speed demon, but has great hands, and will make the tough catch when called upon. At tight end, Zach Hilton, Mark Campbell, and Ernie Conwell will have to do for Drew Brees in place of Antonio Gates.
Rating: 8/10

Offensive Line:
The Saints lost Pro Bowl center LeCharles Bentley to Cleveland, but traded for former Browns starter Jeff Faine, who is a solid addition that should start. Last year's 1st round pick, tackle Jammal Brown will make the move to left tackle, while Jon Stinchcomb takes over at right tackle. At guard, Jermane Mayberry and Montrae Holland round out a solid starting lineup.
Rating: 8/10

Defensive Line:
The Saints traded 2003 1st rounder Jonathan Sullivan to the Patriots for wide receiver Bethel Johnson, but Sullivan wasn't likely to start anyway. The likely starters will be Willie Whitehead and Brian Young. The loss of Darren Howard to the Eagles means the starting ends will be Will Smith and Charles Grant.
Rating: 7/10

Linebackers:
The Saints could certainly use an upgrade here. Free agent additions Scott Fujita and Anthony Simmons are both likely starters, along with 2004 7th rounder Colby Bockwoldt. Depth is a concern as well.
Rating: 5/10

Secondary:
Josh Bullocks and Dwight Smith are the likely starters at safety, but the Saints spent a 2nd round pick on Alabama's Roman Harper, which would probably have been better spent on a much bigger need: cornerback. Mike McKenzie returns as the team's top corner, but beyond him, an upgrade over Fred Thomas wouldn't hurt, and Jason Craft is better suited as a nickel corner.
Rating: 6/10

Special Teams:
Veteran kicker John Carney returns, but could see some stiff competition from undrafted rookie signee Connor Hughes. Mitch Berger is a solid punter, and the return game got a huge boost with the addition of Reggie Bush.
Rating: 8/10

Overall Grade: C+

Next up: The AFC South...